Can marine fisheries and aquaculture meet fish demand from a growing human population in a changing climate?     

Gorka Merino  Manuel Barange  Julia L. Blanchard  James Harle  Robert Holmes  Icarus Allen  Edward H. Allison  Marie Caroline Badjeck  Nicholas K. Dulvy  Jason Holt  Simon Jennings  Christian Mullon  Lynda D. Rodwell 《Global Environmental Change》2012,22(4):795-806

Expansion in the world's human population and economic development will increase future demand for fish products. As global fisheries yield is constrained by ecosystems productivity and management effectiveness, per capita fish consumption can only be maintained or increased if aquaculture makes an increasing contribution to the volume and stability of global fish supplies. Here, we use predictions of changes in global and regional climate (according to IPCC emissions scenario A1B), marine ecosystem and fisheries production estimates from high resolution regional models, human population size estimates from United Nations prospects, fishmeal and oil price estimations, and projections of the technological development in aquaculture feed technology, to investigate the feasibility of sustaining current and increased per capita fish consumption rates in 2050. We conclude that meeting current and larger consumption rates is feasible, despite a growing population and the impacts of climate change on potential fisheries production, but only if fish resources are managed sustainably and the animal feeds industry reduces its reliance on wild fish. Ineffective fisheries management and rising fishmeal prices driven by greater demand could, however, compromise future aquaculture production and the availability of fish products.  相似文献   

The evolution of conservation rules and norms in the Maine lobster industry     

James M. Acheson  Roy Gardner 《Ocean & Coastal Management》2010,53(9):524-534

Natural resources of all kinds have been overexploited by user groups who cannot or will not develop rules to constrain their own exploitive efforts. One notable exception is the Maine lobster industry, where an effective set of conservation laws has been developed due, in great part, to the strong support of the industry. In the early decades of the 20th century, however, the lobster industry was marked by widespread violations of the existing conservation laws and opposition to developing more. This article explores the way that the pirate ethic gave way to the conservation ethic in the 1930s. Our explorations in evolutionary game theory suggest that this change was produced by three factors: costs and benefits of defection from the conservation ethic; numbers of people accepting the conservation ethic quality rule; and events that shocked the system from one state to another. We argue that the shock to the system in the late 1920s and 1930s was caused by massive stock failure which changed the attitudes of many fishermen about the need for conservation. People began to report violations of the law, which made law enforcement more effective and quickly led to a cascade of fishermen abandoning the pirate ethic. In the late 1930s, increasing catches, in combination with a number of other social, technical, and economic factors continued the upward spiral.  相似文献   

Nitrogen inputs to seventy-four southern New England estuaries: Application of a watershed nitrogen loading model     

James S. Latimer  Michael A. Charpentier 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2010

Excess nitrogen inputs to estuaries have been linked to deteriorating water quality and habitat conditions which in turn have direct and indirect impacts on aquatic organisms. This paper describes the application of a previously verified watershed loading model to estimate total nitrogen loading rates and relative source contributions to 74 small-medium sized embayment-type estuaries in southern New England. The study estuaries exhibited a gradient in nitrogen inputs of a factor of over 7000. On an areal basis, the range represented a gradient of approximately a factor of 140. Therefore, all other factors being equal, the study design is sufficient to evaluate ecological effects conceptually tied to excess nitrogen along a nitrogen gradient. In addition to providing total loading inputs rates to the study estuaries, the model provides an estimate of the relative contribution of the nitrogen sources from each watershed to each associated estuary. Cumulative results of this analysis reveal the following source ranking (means): direct atmospheric deposition (37%), ≈wastewater (36%), >indirect atmospheric deposition (16%) > fertilizer (12%). However, for any particular estuary the relative magnitudes of these source types vary dramatically. Together with scientific evidence on symptoms of eutrophication, the results of this paper can be used to develop empirical pressure-state models to determine critical nitrogen loading limits for the protection of estuarine water quality.  相似文献   

Workshop on Antarctic geology 17–18 May 1979     

R. J. Tingey  L. P. Black  P. R. James  K. D. Collerson  P. A. Arriens  J. F. Lovering 《Australian Journal of Earth Sciences》2013,60(5-6):265-283

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Silurian and Devonian systems     

Maxwell R. Banks  E. D. Gill  K. L. Burns 《Australian Journal of Earth Sciences》2013,60(2):177-187

The Ediacara mineral field is situated 30 km W of Beltana on the western margins of the Flinders Ranges, South Australia, and consists of silver‐lead and copper deposits in lower Cambrian carbonate rocks that contain anomalous base‐metal contents throughout the Adelaide Geosyncline. The lower Cambrian rocks, which consist of the basal Parachilna Formation and overlying Ajax Limestone, rest disconformably on the Precambrian, and at Ediacara occupy a shallow N‐S elongate syncline near the hinge zone of the Adelaide Geosyncline. The main primary ore minerals of the silver‐lead mineralization are galena and pyrite, with very minor chalcopyrite and sphalerite, and rare tetrahedrite and pearceite. The gangue consists mainly of silica (both chalcedony and quartz), with minor dolomite and rare barite. The mineralization is stratabound and occurs in conformable zones, the lowest of which commences about 30–50 m above the base of the Cambrian sequence. The host to the silver‐lead mineralization, the Ajax Limestone, can be subdivided into three units which represent a set of lithologies, structures and organic traces indicative of a shallow near‐shore carbonate environment. The silver‐lead mineralization is mainly present in sandy and laminated dolomites which were deposited in an environment ranging from sub‐tidal to bar and channel and tidal flat, respectively. Four types of mineralization have been recognized; disseminated sulphides of syngenetic and/or diagenetic origin and epigenetic concentrations along stylolites, in veins and as breccia fillings. Post‐depositional solution activity has affected a large proportion of the carbonate sequence. The effects of this activity range from stylolites through stylobreccias to solution collapse breccias. The epigenetic concentrations of mineralizations have apparently been formed by the remobilization of the disseminated sulphides during solution activity. The ore and gangue minerals of the epigenetic mineralization display both euhedral forms and distinct colloform banding, and framboidal textures have also been observed in both pyrite and galena. There is evidence of repeated episodic precipitation and no simple paragenetic sequence can be recognized. Fluid inclusions in silica and dolomite associated with the epigenetic mineralization have homogenization temperatures of 159 to 199°C and freezing temperatures that indicate the fluids to be saline brines containing NaCl with CaCl₂ and/or MgCl₂. Sulphur isotope analyses show a range of 8³⁴S values from ‐12.5 to +8.6 per mil, with no evidence of significant differences between the four types of mineralization. The data suggest deposition of the disseminated sulphides as a result of biological reduction of seawater sulphate in a system partially open with respect to sulphate supply. Subsequent remobilization of sulphides apparently involved little or no sulphur isotope fractionation. The Ediacara silver‐lead deposits have many features in common with Mississippi Valley‐type lead‐zinc deposits and appear to have similarities in terms of genesis, in that the epigenetic mineralization has been formed as a result of post‐depositional solution activity during diagenesis in a sedimentary basin. The scale of transport of the metals deposited as the epigenetic mineralization at Ediacara appears, however, to have been very much less than that of the metals in other Mississippi Valley‐type deposits.  相似文献   

Prawn postlarvae fishing in coastal Bangladesh: Challenges for sustainable livelihoods   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Nesar Ahmed  Max Troell  Edward H. Allison  James F. Muir 《Marine Policy》2010,34(2):218-227

Fishing for prawn (Macrobrachium rosenbergii) postlarvae is a major contributor to the livelihoods of the coastal poor in Bangladesh, including women. A study of coastal livelihoods along the lower Pasur River in southwest Bangladesh indicates that on average 40% of total annual income comes from postlarvae fishing during the few months involved. However, indiscriminate fishing of wild postlarvae, with high levels of by-catch, has an impact on biodiversity in coastal ecosystems. This has provoked imposition of restrictions on postlarvae collection. The ban has, however, not been firmly enforced because of the lack of alternative livelihoods for coastal poor. A conceptual framework, drawn from an approach to poverty reduction known as the sustainable livelihoods approach, is applied to understanding the role of prawn postlarvae fishing. Evidence from this study suggests that postlarvae fishers faced a number of livelihood constraints, including poor livelihood assets. This paper concludes that wider livelihood options need to be found for postlarvae fishers to support their livelihoods.  相似文献   

Towards a comprehensive approach to parameter estimation in land surface parameterization schemes     

Rafael Rosolem  Hoshin V. Gupta  W. James Shuttleworth  Luis Gustavo Gonçalves de Gonçalves  Xubin Zeng 《水文研究》2013,27(14):2075-2097

In climate models, the land–atmosphere interactions are described numerically by land surface parameterization (LSP) schemes. The continuing improvement in realism in these schemes comes at the expense of the need to specify a large number of parameters that are either directly measured or estimated. Also, an emerging problem is whether the relationships used in LSPs are universal and globally applicable. One plausible approach to evaluate this is to first minimize uncertainty in model parameters by calibration. In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive analysis of some model diagnostics using a slightly modified version of the Simple Biosphere 3 model for a variety of biomes located mainly in the Amazon. First, the degree of influence of each individual parameter in simulating surface fluxes is identified. Next, we estimate parameters using a multi‐operator genetic algorithm applied in a multi‐objective context and evaluate simulations of energy and carbon fluxes against observations. Compared with the default parameter sets, these parameter estimates improve the partitioning of energy fluxes in forest and cropland sites and provide better simulations of daytime increases in assimilation of net carbon during the dry season at forest sites. Finally, a detailed assessment of the parameter estimation problem was performed by accounting for the decomposition of the mean squared error to the total model uncertainty. Analysis of the total prediction uncertainty reveals that the parameter adjustments significantly improve reproduction of the mean and variability of the flux time series at all sites and generally remove seasonality of the errors but do not improve dynamical properties. Our results demonstrate that error decomposition provides a meaningful and intuitive way to understand differences in model performance. To make further advancements in the knowledge of these models, we encourage the LSP community to adopt similar approaches in the future. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Intra-plate deformation in west-central Europe     

James Campbell  Axel Nothnagel 《Journal of Geodynamics》2010,49(3-4):130-140

The central part of Europe north of the alpine orogenic belt is generally seen as a relatively stable area of the western tip of the Eurasian plate. Indeed, up to now, no geodetically significant motions have been detected although an active rift system running roughly in SSE–NNW direction along the Rhine valley could have some effect on the stability of this region. Presently, the increasing accuracy of geodetic point motions should allow the study of small motions at levels down to nearly 0.1 mm/yr. We start our investigation with a closer look at the ‘true’ accuracy and significance of GPS derived point velocities of permanent stations. We compare and discuss the different levels of formal errors obtained by the three analysis centers considered in this study (EPN, JPL and SOPAC) and present additional ways of assessing the accuracy using the redundancy offered by different independent analyses and multiple systems operating at one site. On the average, all results indicate that a one-sigma level of ±0.3 mm/yr can be seen as a conservative estimate for the horizontal accuracy of point motions in central Europe. On the basis of this assumption we find that at present, the actual velocity field as determined by different analysis groups and centers does not show any significant east–west extensional deformation. We do however see a prominent north–south compressional velocity gradient of about 1 mm/yr/1000 km (1 nanostrain/yr) which could be associated with the Alpine thrust in conjunction with a south-directed horizontal component of the Fennoscandian Glacial Isostatic Adjustment.  相似文献   

Layered organization in the coastal ocean: An introduction to planktonic thin layers and the LOCO project     

James M. Sullivan  Margaret A. McManus  Olivia M. Cheriton  Kelly J. Benoit-Bird  Louis Goodman  Zhankun Wang  John P. Ryan  Mark Stacey  D. Van Holliday  Charles Greenlaw  Mark A. Moline  Malcolm McFarland 《Continental Shelf Research》2010,30(1):1-6

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The Eltanin asteroid impact: possible South Pacific palaeomegatsunami footprint and potential implications for the Pliocene–Pleistocene transition     

James Goff  Catherine Chagué‐Goff  Michael Archer  Dale Dominey‐Howes  Chris Turney 《第四纪科学杂志》2012,27(7):660-670

Large asteroid impacts are rare, and those into the deep ocean are rarer still. The Eltanin asteroid impact around 2.51 ± 0.07 Ma occurred at a time of great climatic and geological change associated with the Pliocene–Pleistocene boundary. Numerical models of the event indicate that a megatsunami was generated, although there is debate concerning its magnitude and the region‐wide extent of its influence. We summarise the existing evidence for possible Eltanin megatsunami deposits in Antarctica, Chile and New Zealand, while also examining other potential sites from several locations, mainly around the South Pacific region. In reviewing these data we note that these events were unfolding at the same time as those associated with the Pliocene–Pleistocene boundary and, as such, most of the geological evidence from that time has a climatic interpretation. The potential climatic and geological ramifications of the Eltanin asteroid impact, however, have failed to be considered by most researchers studying this time period. Although we are not advocating that all geological activity at that time is connected with the Eltanin asteroid impact, it raises interesting questions about the role potentially played by such catastrophic events in contributing to or even triggering epochal transitions. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献